prog | So

I have five immediate family members who live in a swing state (Maine). They are all highly partisan Republicans and fans of Fox news. (I mean this literally: they watch Fox news and tell me how great it is.) They are highly fiscally conservative, and moderately socially conservative. (Socially, my parents have been slowly drifting towards more libertarian views as they have grown older, mellowed out, and met a wider variety of people... as much as that's possible in Maine, anyway.)

* I think that my parents are not stupid or insane, but instead possess a very different view of the world than you or I, in which the sitting president's actions have been generally justified.

* I think that my two brothers and one sister-in-law are too dopey to hold any political views of their own, and will vote however my parents do.

* If I can somehow sway my parents to vote for !W, I would feel as if I helped cast five ballots in a state whose electoral votes' destination is not predetermined. (My own state is the bluest of of the blues.)

So, then:

* Can I do anything?

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Can you come up with some anecdote about how W's policies have directly effected your personal life? A lot of BushCo's justifications for actions is that "only bad people will get folded/spindled/mutilated". Presuming that your family doesn't thing you're Bad People, that may at least get them to listen.

Since *when* has Maine been a swing state? Maine's pretty liberal, my friend.

Maine:Liberal::Arizona:Conservative

Maine is absolutely among the "purple states" this year, if not in previous election years. It voted for Gore by a margin of 5 percent in 2000, and polls today give it a very weak leaning towards Kerry.

I would put forth the theory that Maine appears pretty liberal to you since you spend most of your time in its larger cities, and (I know from your recent entries!) you visit UMaine sometimes. Everything due north or west of Orono, I think you'd find different overall attitudes there.

One of my orkers is from Taiwan, and most of her exposure to the USA is from Boston; she has admitted to feel mystified at reports that Bush has so much support, when she can't find a scrap of it on the streets...

I just read at electoral-vote.com that Maine is one of the states that splits its electoral vote by congressional district - what effect has that had in the past?

Arizona voted for Clinton in 1996. AZ has a lot of younger and Latino voters, both of whom (if they vote, or if they're allowed to vote) are somewhat more likely to go for the Democrats. The state certainly has a lot of Barry Goldwater Republicans, right-leaning snowbirds, those who yearn for the Old West (I loves mah guns) but it's also full of transplants from the Midwest and Northeast, many of whom have traditionally voted for Democrats, and it's increasingly urbanized.

Maine is weird, especially northern Maine. It, along with much of the rest of the Northeast, is one of the last bastions of "traditional" Republicans in the Olympia Snowe-fiscally-conservative-socially-moderate-Rockefeller Republican mold like jmac's parents. I can at least respect them. Maine's GOP is far less likely to contain members of the religious far-right (like someone we both know; he's not originally from Maine) and hasn't been hijacked by the Reagan Republicans as much as it has been elsewhere. The Democrats meanwhile are more likely to be in the style of the pre-1960s/70s "old left," ie more in the Rust Belt mold and less socially progressive.

Also keep in mind that the very definitions of the parties have changed over the decades. The South used to be solidly for the Democrats and Maine was one of the two states (the other was VT) to vote against FDR in 1936.

Culture still makes a big difference, but if you're simply looking at it by general area or state, the greatest split now is urban vs. suburban vs. rural: urban for the Blue, rural for the Reds (the opposite of the traditional definition BTW--the Paris "Red Belt" was full of Communists), and the suburbs split in varying proportions (with some notable exceptions). It's actually pretty close all over. Looking at election results on a county-by-county basis is really more illustrative. And here are the swing states in the 2000 election, along with some more commentary.

And if the electorate were the same as it were a century ago (for all practical purposes and generally speaking, white males over 21) Bush would win in an overwhelming landslide.

It's complicated.

Sounds like it's unlikely they'd be convinced to vote for Kerry, so maybe the best you can do is get them to not vote: schedule a family gathering for voting day. (And intercept their mail in case they try to send in absentee ballots.)

Or you could try to convince them to vote for the Libertarian Party candidate, or anyone else more fiscally conservative than Bush (which is not hard to be).

if they are becoming more libertarian, perhaps discussing the patriot act crapping on first amendment rights? maybe you can recommend "the bush betrayal" by james bovard, prominent libertarian since that book nicely maps out how the current administration tramples everything in its path.

you definitely have your work cut out for you, though. much like nosferatu, fox news is all powerful after dark.

yeah. i'm in a similar situation--my parents are both loyal republicans of the fiscally conservative/socially moderate-to-liberal stripe. the only ideas that i have are to a) approach through my mother, who is somewhat less partisan (she doesn't read the wall street journal editorial page), and b) go for the 'let's get the christian right out of the republican party' tactic. dunno if either of those will help for you.

if your parents are fiscally conservative in the more traditional view, you might argue against bush's huge deficits. if they're fiscally conservative in the no-taxes-starve-the-beast mold, then that won't work as well.

...of course, if you're like me, then coming up with an argument is the least of your problems. it's more of a question of how to have a political disagreement/discussion with your parents at all.

::Reads first 3 lines of this post. Screams. Out loud. Wonders if the jmac was switched at birth::

The above mention of deficits might work, but they might just blame it on Congress (nevermind that it's under Repub control) or use Bush's rationale, his "trifecta" argument. Honestly,

dougo's plan sounds like the best. Good luck trying to convince anyone about anything.

Good luck trying to convince anyone about anything.

Probably his family is not the right target to convince. Better to find people who don't vote, but would vote for Kerry if they did vote, and get them to vote. It's both easier and more ethical to convince someone to vote than to convince someone not to vote (or to change their vote).

What's unethical about trying to changing someone's mind? So long as you don't stoop to anything. (Such as tricking them to stay away from the polls that day... gee whiz. :) )

I didn't say unethical, just that it's more ethical to encourage people to vote. Maybe ethical isn't the right word.

And yes, I was being facetious about the family gathering thing. Besides, they could just go vote in the morning or something. A safer plan would be to have the gathering the day before, and spike the potato salad so they all get 48-hour food poisoning...

Sometimes, esp. after a frustrating non-conversation with my family, I wonder about my true lineage as well. But the truth is that as I get older I look increasingly like my oldest brother, except with my mother's hair, so that's that.

nothing my republican family can do in upstate new york will change that state from blue to red.

terrorism might, but only because people are sheep.

(The sibling in colorado, with that state putting a new elector distribution proposal on the same ballot, and the one in florida, for being florida, well, *sigh*)

I'd be happy to lend them my copy of Outfoxed...
:)

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luckily

On the Fox front...