prog | So

I have five immediate family members who live in a swing state (Maine). They are all highly partisan Republicans and fans of Fox news. (I mean this literally: they watch Fox news and tell me how great it is.) They are highly fiscally conservative, and moderately socially conservative. (Socially, my parents have been slowly drifting towards more libertarian views as they have grown older, mellowed out, and met a wider variety of people... as much as that's possible in Maine, anyway.)

* I think that my parents are not stupid or insane, but instead possess a very different view of the world than you or I, in which the sitting president's actions have been generally justified.

* I think that my two brothers and one sister-in-law are too dopey to hold any political views of their own, and will vote however my parents do.

* If I can somehow sway my parents to vote for !W, I would feel as if I helped cast five ballots in a state whose electoral votes' destination is not predetermined. (My own state is the bluest of of the blues.)

So, then:

* Can I do anything?

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

Since *when* has Maine been a swing state? Maine's pretty liberal, my friend.

Maine:Liberal::Arizona:Conservative

Maine is absolutely among the "purple states" this year, if not in previous election years. It voted for Gore by a margin of 5 percent in 2000, and polls today give it a very weak leaning towards Kerry.

I would put forth the theory that Maine appears pretty liberal to you since you spend most of your time in its larger cities, and (I know from your recent entries!) you visit UMaine sometimes. Everything due north or west of Orono, I think you'd find different overall attitudes there.

One of my orkers is from Taiwan, and most of her exposure to the USA is from Boston; she has admitted to feel mystified at reports that Bush has so much support, when she can't find a scrap of it on the streets...

I just read at electoral-vote.com that Maine is one of the states that splits its electoral vote by congressional district - what effect has that had in the past?

Arizona voted for Clinton in 1996. AZ has a lot of younger and Latino voters, both of whom (if they vote, or if they're allowed to vote) are somewhat more likely to go for the Democrats. The state certainly has a lot of Barry Goldwater Republicans, right-leaning snowbirds, those who yearn for the Old West (I loves mah guns) but it's also full of transplants from the Midwest and Northeast, many of whom have traditionally voted for Democrats, and it's increasingly urbanized.

Maine is weird, especially northern Maine. It, along with much of the rest of the Northeast, is one of the last bastions of "traditional" Republicans in the Olympia Snowe-fiscally-conservative-socially-moderate-Rockefeller Republican mold like jmac's parents. I can at least respect them. Maine's GOP is far less likely to contain members of the religious far-right (like someone we both know; he's not originally from Maine) and hasn't been hijacked by the Reagan Republicans as much as it has been elsewhere. The Democrats meanwhile are more likely to be in the style of the pre-1960s/70s "old left," ie more in the Rust Belt mold and less socially progressive.

Also keep in mind that the very definitions of the parties have changed over the decades. The South used to be solidly for the Democrats and Maine was one of the two states (the other was VT) to vote against FDR in 1936.

Culture still makes a big difference, but if you're simply looking at it by general area or state, the greatest split now is urban vs. suburban vs. rural: urban for the Blue, rural for the Reds (the opposite of the traditional definition BTW--the Paris "Red Belt" was full of Communists), and the suburbs split in varying proportions (with some notable exceptions). It's actually pretty close all over. Looking at election results on a county-by-county basis is really more illustrative. And here are the swing states in the 2000 election, along with some more commentary.

And if the electorate were the same as it were a century ago (for all practical purposes and generally speaking, white males over 21) Bush would win in an overwhelming landslide.

It's complicated.

So

Buh?

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Re: Buh?

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