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[personal profile] prog
Was talking with a friend about Peak Oil the other day. I hadn't pinned down the phrase until then, and now I'm fascinated with the topic. It's the first phrase I've subscribed to via Google News Alerts.

She was invoking SF scenarios where human civilization literally runs out of gas and can't do anything anymore. I don't see that... before the gas goes away, it will become really expensive, and stay that way. I foresee self-correcting behavior among consumers who are forced to finally start adopting some conservation into their lifestyles. For the last 30 years they have avoided or dismissed the the conservation message, since they had nothing drop-dead obvious to gain from it. Now, suddenly, they will. It costs HOW much to fill up my SUV?! And keep the lights on all day, and leave the heat cranked to 80, and...

But all the while a finite resource is still being burned up, so something will have to replace it on a global scale. Mark Frauenfelder and others posted a nice summary & info roundup on Boing Boing about Peak Oil and possible cheap-energy alternatives, including some interesting stuff about modern (post- Three Mile / Homer Simpson) nuclear power technologies.

Date: 2005-04-14 11:13 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cortezopossum.livejournal.com
Peak Oil means more than just getting rid of the SUV...

Look at everything in your home made of plastic. That too will become a luxury.

I still think this is an interesting power generation method however you'd need about 3000 of them to power the US and I fear such structures may spawn tornados.

If we're come up with a way to make industrial-scale quantities of nanotube cable a space elevator might become possible. Would make bringing resources to and from other planets practical -- maybe get a new supply of hydrocarbons (Titan?) Or better yet -- Helium-3 from the moon or for He-3 based fusion.

Date: 2005-04-14 12:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] prog.livejournal.com
You know, I considered plastic, which is now so ubiquitous and important at every level of everything, not just peoples' homes... no news stories seem to mention a danger to plastics production, though, so I've been mum on it.

My implied (and somewhat optimistic) point was that automobile fuel may be the first thing to become permanently and obviously expensive (some would say that it's starting to happen already), and everyday consumers would finally curb their use of it, staving off a scary global oil shortage for a while and allowing stuff like plastics production to continue. But we'd still need to find an oil replacement for that too, I suppose.

Date: 2005-04-14 11:24 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cortezopossum.livejournal.com
BTW... Wouldn't there be a relatively easy solution to the 'Microwave Oops' problem? Interlock your space station transmitter to receive a signal from the microwave collecting station. If the station becomes misaligned it no longer receives the signal and off go the transmitters.

I haven't heard anyone talk about this lately although the idea still seems feasable.

Date: 2005-04-14 01:50 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hrafn.livejournal.com
Thanks for the link to Boing Boing - I read the site, but I think I kinda just skimmed that piece, because it was so link-heavy and I was (probably) not in the mood to chase all the bits down. I also read WorldChanging, but there's a lot more commentary there than there was when I first read those articles.

Date: 2005-04-14 02:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] prog.livejournal.com
This was my first exposure to WorldChanging, actually, and I thought: hey, this is great.

The Rolling Stone article that the first link leads to is kinda drively. Any projection that giddily concludes we're headed into a Tyler Durden back-to-the-trees future is not worth my time.

Date: 2005-04-14 08:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hrafn.livejournal.com
I really really like WorldChanging - it's a neat mix of technology and architecture and ecology and . . . stuff. And it's generally pretty upbeat, which is really refreshing, what with the people out there screaming, "We're all gonna DIE!!! when the oil runs out!"

Date: 2005-04-15 12:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jtroutman.livejournal.com
Yes, is very cool, and I don't visit there enough. I have met the guy who runs the site (Alex Steffen) and had a few beers with him. Very smart guy.

Date: 2005-04-14 06:29 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pseudomanitou.livejournal.com
I doubt nuclear energy will equal 'cheap energy'. As it stands now, since it's introduction - nuclear energy has not gotten any cheaper - nor does it look like they can ever make it that way what with waste disposal being a huge problem that has been handled in the most pathetic ways in order to make it seem more palatable (IE - Yucca Mountain).

Oil is not necessary for most products - almost all of my household items are free of petroleum products. Various glass mixtures can provide where/when plastics drop off, and other such plastics can be made with corn oils and so on.

I'm extremely aggravated by people who insist wind power will not provide. I'm looking right out my office window at a massive wind turbine that supports 40% of the local college's energy. It's effective, requires low maintenance, was built in a flash, needs no crew to monitor it constantly, and terrorists won't be slamming planes into it anytime soon if ever. At best, people can argue that a major city would need a massive amount of space to set up the wind turbines it needs to power it - but I can see two golfing ranges from my office window as well.

People just need to adjust their priorities :P

Date: 2005-04-18 03:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] glowingwhispers.livejournal.com

Hello. I came across your journal and couldn't help but notice the disconnect between your "friends"/"friends of" list and your profile bio statement "I friend anyone who friends me".

It's a trite observation but such logical inconsistencies stand out to me. Plus, given the journal entries of yours that I've read, this inconsistently surprises me.

Best regards,
glowingwhispers

Date: 2005-04-18 03:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] glowingwhispers.livejournal.com

On second look, I realize I'm completely wrong. I apologize for disturbing you. I'm presently in the middle of a series of exams and my mind seems to be doing strange things.



Date: 2005-04-18 04:50 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] prog.livejournal.com
That is OK. I accept the backhanded compliment that my posts are consistently logical. :)

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